Well one way to protect yourself there is to be conservative at every opportunity which I have done - conservative price $600 USD (in-line with PLS' DFS), conservative OPEX (20% above scoping study estimate), conservative CAPEX (top-end of scoping study estimate including 35% error up), conservative cap raising prices & range.
Then the other thing you can do is more qualitative and your own risk tolerance. Looking at the potential NPV/share myself and thinking about the transport risks and lack of certainty around transport & mid-term lithium demand I am not comfortable holding a position in this share. All IMO of course and if you have a higher risk tolerance then you might rate this a buy.
AVZ Price at posting:
4.1¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held