I'm not placing much confidence in them being all that cunning if I'm honest. the SPP was terrible and I haven't seen any strategic validation to suggest otherwise.
I think performance shares indicate managements general strategy. which are loosely coined around a positive DFS and offtake of 25% or something to that extent. I think you'll see them plod through those stage gates before entertaining "a reasonable offer"
it makes more sense why any "low ball" offers may have been deemed "unreasonable" so as to not be required to announce to the market.
Genuinely, I think AVZ management would fully endorse someone putting a formalised offer at a reasonable price albeit hostile. Being a mechanism to boost the S/P and kick off a bidding war. until then I think they'll collect the remaining performance shares and then all of sudden those unreasonable offers become reasonable.
whilst most retail would accept along with the like of huayou catl (assuming they're the ones involved) but the remainder of top 20 has held reasonably strong over a long period which would suggest No one wants/is able to offload.
I think they need 80% or something is that correct. I think they'd have enough shares to prevent a spill if they so chose.
I'd personally be disappointed in the outcome of a takeover and likely vote against it as I'd much prefer to continue to hold a stake in an operating mine 2-5 years from now. that said, if some one said they will double triple my money overnight that's really not a bad thing.
im trying to lean on some old colleagues from my days at CITIC to see if they've got any info re huayou. ive also probed ML re strategy but he's tight lipped on it. and AVZ give great insights at the agm and via phone discussions but haven't kept their word. (see SPP)
If I was a betting man, I bet on relationships have broken down slightly between AVZ and AG. IMO IMO
perhaps just a difference in strategy. Still confident ML is doing his best from his side and optimising shareholder return. after all AG performance shares and S/P based not stage gates which can be executed at any capacity.
disclosure; I'm still free carried and slightly green from today's levels from initial investment 24 months ago. Very bullish and bought options at 2.8-3 prior to SPP completion. have stated that I'll likely sell those at the gap close of 6.7 and free carry them again.
