CATL makes its entry via Lithium Plus Pty Ltd?, page-208

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ericson

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10/03/19

04:19

Post #: 37710801
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Originally posted by 8horse ↑

I have done two scenarios:

Base parameters:
Royalties 3.5% DRC + 1% to partner, mining corporate rate 30%, depreciation 10% (Interest on financing the capex not included, need to be addressed), recovery rate 80%, AUD/USD 0.72, Capex: 2mtpa US$160m; 5mtpa US$400/t; 10mtpa US$800m, Dathomir meant to be responsible for power and road infrastructure fund (might be from a part of US$6b resource for infrastructure deal).

One with worse market cconditions:
using spodumene price of US$600/t, cash cost: 2mtpa: US$400/t , 5mtpa: US$360/t, 10mtpa: US$342/t

After tax NPV@10%, 60% share for AVZ for 20 years mine:
- 2mtpa: AUD$383m
- 5mtpa: AUD$992m
-10mtpa: AUD$2,153m

View attachment 1472431

One with current market cconditions:
using spodumene price of US$760/t, cash cost: 2mtpa: US$355/t , 5mtpa: US$319.5/t, 10mtpa: US$303.5/t

After tax NPV@10%, 60% share for AVZ for 20 years mine:
- 2mtpa: AUD$808m
- 5mtpa: AUD$1,895m
-10mtpa: AUD$3,940m
View attachment 1472433

In a worse scenario, at spodumene price of USD$600/t and cash cost of US$400/t, AVZ still would have AUD$383m after tax NPV. (best cash cost US$297 per the latest ASX announcement).
I don't think Manono project would have economic viability issues.

All imo & DYOR.

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Really excellent presentation and succinct yet rich analysis. Thank you 8H.

Using this, the lowest valuation possible based on JORC to date would be some 20c / share or thereabouts . Hmmmmm

AVZ Price at posting: 4.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
12 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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CATL makes its entry via Lithium Plus Pty Ltd?, page-208

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This biotech stock raised $11M in a risk-off environment. Its Alzheimer's drug could change the game

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