Catching the Falling Knife, page-39

and for those who dont already follow this site, here is a nice way to objectively track global EV sales. basically they are growing strongly across the world. china is leading the way with >100% growth and the largest volumes on an absolute basis by far, echoing niu’s sentiments above.
germany is leading the way for europe but growth is across the board.

demand growth looks a touch sluggish to me. sqm is slower than anticipated and lower than Morgan stanley says in their expansion. existing producer companies like ore, gxy and pls (all of which i own) are a little slower than anticipated to roll out their new brine mines (eg sdv for gxy), expansions (phase 2 ore) and reach nameplate (ore, pls). juniors seem sluggish and will take longer than anticipated to get into productio. (eg kdr). chinese spodumene converters are operating below capacity and expanding slower than anticipated.

i predict demand growth to outpace expectations and supply growth to be lower than anticipated as my base case, but even if demand growth is more moderate and supply growth is faster, li prices will remain strong as per roskill analysis and others and ore will be just fine.