Tinwins, the 15c of cash-backing has nothing to do with the...

Tinwins, the 15c of cash-backing has nothing to do with the distribution. It is the amount of cash EXS is going to have on its balance sheet post-distribution and post payment of tax in Feb.

As such, 15c should form the absolute base share price post-distribution. You can work backwards from there to determine what the share price should actually trade at given all the interest, royalties, gold production and other assets the company has (including another 1.5c of franking credits).

No-one knows by how much the share price will drop, but the amount of the distribution is 38c with a 12c franking credit, i.e. 50c. Add that to the 15c cash-backing and 1.5c excess franking credits and you can see that you can buy the stock for 66.5c today if you assign zero value to its actual resource assets.

Or in other words, at current prices of 68.5c, the market is saying all of its gold production, royalties and exploration assets are worth only 2c or $7m (i.e. it is a joke).

My view is that if the stock stays where it is now when the dividend is paid, that means no superfunds or exempt entities have bought the stock, so it should only fall initially by around 38c. If instead, we see the share price go to 80c, it means the superfunds and exempt entities have all bought up the stock at the last minute and we may see it initially fall closer to 50c. Just my view though and this assumes that we don't get any good drilling results or big jumps in the gold price in the meantime.