I had another read through the report to roughly figure out the cash flow analysis for Q3 with the limited data available in such a report. I believe cash flow from ops is presently about 10.8 or 11 mill but I stand to be corrected, increasing to 12-13 mill this quarter with current commodity prices already up 10% and another 8-9 mill with Baal Gammon on top (+1572t). I also averaged out the receivables over both quarters to keep it simple.
What's pretty clear is that the shortfall caused by a 30% fall in commodity prices plus Einasleigh left them with a -15 mill gap to address. I.e. the cap raising for 25.
They drew down circa -62 million from the ANZ refinancing facility on Dec 31, meaning that the money is not spent but available for Q3 cash flow. I left expected payments to creditors as the same due to the new debt load and allocated the difference to other operational expenses, which is normally a fair chunk. I estimate their cash position at the end of Q3 to be about 57 million. Debt has increased to about 92 mill, of which I think could be repaid over 2 years at about 10 mill per quarter. 30 mill is older debt of which 19 will be paid for by inventors. I also cut back development expenditure by 5 mill as they indicated would occur. The cash burn rate will fall from about 8-10 mill per quarter to about 5.
With no interruptions from the wet season I believe at current margins that EBIDTA will be more like 48 mill less about 43 for DT = NPAT of circa 3-5 Mill.
KZL Price at posting:
29.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
