Jimmy_C & Portfolio and to all else... Yeah, I've got no...

Jimmy_C & Portfolio and to all else...

Yeah, I've got no iron-cast predictor.

I'd guesstimate in all likelihood the impossibly lowest outcome (10,1% @ $3,370,3) and feel that the (10.1% @ $4,808.4 ) is a doable high, I'd call ($3,370.3m @18.7%) the impossibly highest outcome.

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In 2015 aside from the final fail of a number of cases, and particularly the bank case, was otherwise, a very comparable year.

The bank case was I understand based on my non-legal review of news articles at that time, to be a sure win for the small guy. IMF had backed the right horse.

Judge Susan Kiefel was all but expected to decide so too.

Ultimately her decision seemed uncharacteristic of her judicial tone at the time. That the appellant (?) / IMF could not derive a certainty, based on costings in respondent(?) ANZ books!!! , and so lose for the weight amongst smaller considerations uncertainty seems harsh & inequitable, when it was clear the banks sought to penalise their errant customers, harshly.

Kiefel now heads the High court, and to take this poor(?) judgement further, would be to sit before the same judge. Would she recuse herself? I suppose she would have too. Would IMF want to toss good money, after bad - in pursuit of a Winslow Boy victory. No! They've copped it on the chin, and it is best they move on. It is for the saints to debate how many angels can dance on a pin.

But I imagine sadly, that the benchmark 'limbo' for litigation funders in Australia, has been lowered to an ever so slightly more stressed lumbago.

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Portfolio I too believe a trace from the three year spread to actual completion, would be great. I am not sure were the $219.6m (2011) $237.6 (2012) $212.1 (2013) & $268 (2014) come from in your analysis. That 15% schedules so well, but I'm uncormfortable with having say expected 2012 earnings, in 2010, impacting 2011?

I do like Jimmy_C reliance on the penultimate June YE figures, rather than December figures, simply because it is our shortest "focus", and that we match what they think for a year, to that year.

For 2017 we'd then go with $732.0 @ 13.1% = $95.2m and as at half year (note 5) IMF have realised $66.7m, so we are well on track for the expected outcome.

The 1077.9 @ 10.1% = $108.9 which is a tad bit higher, but in the paddock.

Its a volatile game. We'll never truly know until the accounts are presented. But with 56 cases roughly packaged into more equal sized carry-bags, the chances in any one year of a judge Kiefel coming in and pi55ing on the IMF parade, is somewhat mitigated.

I do hope I given you both, and others cause to reflect on the Quarterly CASE INVESTMENT, and how it feeds into the entity.

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Portfolio

I simply take screen shots of my excel sheets, and then cut the image to size with a very basic image editor, and save the result in a *.jpg format. These images can be uploaded using the "Upload a File" adjacent to the "Post Message" button. A very obvious protocol allows you to point to *jpg as saved on your PC.

hint:- If you can resize an image, the width in the range 700-900 works well.

Cheers to you both