I don't want to speculate on where the SP will go here. But, the one thing that seems to be missing in the discussion is the BVF. I'm not sure why that is.
BVF came in with a lot of funds (at a price much higher than 10c). I doubt they did that 'just for fun'. I would be pretty sure they know the IP portfolio better than any outsider. Of course, I have no idea what value they would place on the IP. Or, maybe BVF see Merck as some sort of buyer in the current circumstances. It would be a snap for Merck at the current market cap.
So, I'm not surprised that BNO hasn't been able to attract any local interest in the cap raising. I reckon you have given a pretty complete explanation about that, DDD. But, what is BVF up to? They don't want to simply sit on the register at the magical 19.9% because it looks good. GLTA