augusta, based on what adi themselves were saying in presentations last year, i agree, there was a real push on the capital raised from yemen being sufficient. but imho things are changing fast in the eagleford..
i agree with everything you posted, the recent announcement of a cap raising was unexpected, but follows eme and eka in their cap raising ventures, which no one has been overly critical of, its part and parcel of what the partners need to do,..
adi were on a par with aut by and large, with minimal cap raisings over the last years
a few weeks back AUT made these statements in the excellence in oil conference
first slide was "an emerging producer"
that statement imho is relevant, moving from explorer to producer is a critical step that all the jvp's have to consider, how its done and who's support you need..
if the cap raising is targeting institutional investors, then aside from the dilution, there is little concern from me, if it is not subscribed to then imho i will be considering a strong sell position. but alternately i think it would be near impossible for new institutional investor not to see the value in adi, and to get their support and imho see some healthy announcements in the near term will see some transition in the sp like we have recently seen in the case of azz..(and no one at azz is complaining there i think) there is a trade off imho for a benefit for investor support at these levels,
the alternate would be to wait and see and have the likes of critics on these threads moan and complain day in day out that adi have not the funds to continue and cast doubt on adi to have capital and resources to go the miles needed ahead.. that negative sentiment will be quashed in this move and allow the positive aspect of the news flows to be of benefit to all..
AUT also say this in their presentation
Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field ? Eagle Ford & Austin Chalk
Secured a material interest by participation in the discovery of a large onshore gas & condensate field in SE Texas ? Sugarkane Field
Remained conservatively funded: Last capital raising 2007 ? no debt
Discovery drilling and acquisition of land position using capital
Limited spend but moved up the technical learning curve in a new trend, particularly in drilling & completions, by watching others - leveraged off their transfer of shale experience & spend capacity
De-risked appraisal of project via industry farmout:
Introduce a well funded technically competent partner (Hilcorp) to prove concept and demonstrate value through extensive free carried drilling program currently underway
Maximise value and deliver on value proposition via effective, profitable development with experienced cost effective operator
i think many are missing the point that hilcorp have practically completed their obligations, and imho they will appraise a little more then move in with a much larger operation.. either that or say good bye to the acreages..
imho stay tuned, the jvp is imho heading for a transition from explorer to producer..
good luck to all holders
ADI Price at posting:
29.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held