cannot break 3.50..., page-4

V5,

Read last annual report or may even be in the one of quarter reports about currency hedging. I think they are in the money at >US$0.88. As majority of my holding are long term (ie trading only a very small holding), I don't really worry about short term currency variations.

CEY is the cheapest (after NHC) major coal players (>5MTpa). CEY has allocated large capex to expand the two exporting mines to take advantage of better export price. Local contracts price is holding back SP in the short term. I don't know the extent of ETS will effect CEY but effect will be reduce as local contracts ease off. Currently, ~1/3 is local contracts then 50% by 2013 then only 25% by 2015 (also total mine output will be far greater then current 10MTpa).

What I am trying to point out here is that CEY SP will only goes up in the long term (due to higher production and increasing exporting volume). CEY will be re rate as export volume increases and will match other peers.

If worry about ETS, invest in geothermal to offset CEY or buy NHC (I also hold) as NHC got footing in PGS & AOE to offset its expected ETS.

CEY major shareholders are Barclays Group (10.29%), Bank of America (6.29%) and Citigroup (6.11%). I agree that the lack of a cornerstone industry investor leaves the company vulnerable to a takeover. Several Indian and also at least two Thailand firms are looking at Oz coal assets (eg RIV yesterday). CEY relative cheap SP, 10MTpa and its increasing exporting productions make it even more compelling than peers.

Technical summary (from wise-owl):

The weekly log chart shows that CEY has been uptrending since 1997. Its ascent accelerated from 2000-05, rising from 50c to over $5, before several years of consolidation ensued. The stock attempted to break new ground in 2008. It posted a new all time high at $6.40, but the glory was short lived, with the pattern resembling more of a double top in hindsight. Severe falls following during 2009, with the stock dropping all the way back to its long term trendline. The emergence of support above this line at $1.50 is a bullish sign, and the stock has subsequently rallied back above $3. After this strong rebound, consolidation over recent months above $3 is a promising sign. A break above $3.55 would indicate that further gains are in store.

Several other chartists also agreed that CEY is consolidating and will head up to $4 in the short term.