Ok ok, I just couldn't help myself.
This dude Chasndave has big bickies invested in OEX (compared to my meagre stake), and his posts are usually very knowledgeable/insightful from an investment perspective;
chasndave
Morning guys
Today 11:30
Banter aside, this could be a company changing well if all goes to plan. I have no issue with the company taking its time. Everything will need to be undertaken in a methodical manner as nothing, as the company mentioned, is comparable. This is important as to repeat any successful process requires detailed analysis and documentation.
Yes, the SP may fluctuate, we may not like it, but ultimately over the longer period, if this is successful the anticipation of further well success will drive this even higher. For me, I am looking for 30p at some stage in the next 12 months. Certainly possible. ATB
Risk Reap
Today 11:49
You have to realise that many people jump daily even hourly between shares trying to capture that 50% in a day that AIM now and again produces. What they fail to realise is that over time with the spread and fees they are very unlikely to make any decent money and more often than not they will lose.
AIM money makers are those that you get in early, ride the storm a little in the uncertain times and then either sell into any decent rise whereby you are exiting as others are coming at a higher price.. or simply, buy and hold for 12 -24 months.
Finally, from yesterday, this post from Ezhik is well worth a careful and thoughtful read through:
Ezhik
RE: caveat
Mon 16:21
Well testing---(if the test is worth continuing) is something of a progressive operation. eg Test (a) and then go on to (b). IF (b) is good go to (c). If there is a problem with (b) do this to fix it and then test (b) again.
Bear in mind that testing will take place at each of the fracced intervals to establish, pressures, flows, permeability, oil compressibility, optimum choke sizes, logs, they will attempt to quantify the resevoir, possibly establish the limits of the resevoir, get an understanding of the well characteristics to develop a forward plan.
Well will be opened and shut a different intervals to test recovery times, they will have to Interpret the findings, re-check everything and then make sure their facts are right before updating the market on the commerciality.
They wouldnt continue testing if it were not viable to do so. They would not want to make a statement that causes big institutions to buy-in only to say a couple of weeks later that they had made a mistake--it would be the end of OEX credibility. (have a look at BMR)
For me, the fact that testing is ongoing is a good thing and in my view there are no real delays as nobody knows what they will have to deal with along the way. A delay is when equipment is due on a certain date and it doesnt arrive for 2 weeks.
Resevoir testing cannot be given an end date until it actually ends--it is just taking longer then investors would like.
Risks remain--they may damage the well, the high early pressures and flows may drop off to a fart if the well closes up, the govt may decide to seize the assets, there may be an earthquake--fek knows,
so either believe in OEX and wait for the change in trading volume followed by an rns or don't.
Good luck to all though-- I'm holding on and like everyone else, wish I had taken profits at 12 and bought back at 9, but I/we didnt and that's that.
This is just a viewpoint.
[I've had it for today. It's about time for another change of scene, so tomorrow we'll be moving on from our 3 month sojourn in Vietnam (the restaurants and bars of old town Hoi An and Sapa etc) and start eating dumplings and drinking Moutai for our 3 months at Dongfang & Sanya, Hainan Dao, China - our little Chinese tropical paradise.]
