There seems to be a convergence of minds and memories relating to time lines derived from revisiting company anns from earlier this year that appear to confirm a 6 to 8 week clean up and production testing commencing from ~14 July.
Extract from the January 2014 Investor Presentation referred to in the UK posts below: Schedule
• Anticipated spud 22 Feb – 9 March 2014
• ~ 30 days drilling
• 5 ~ 7 days fracture stimulation after rig demobilises from site
• > 6 ~ 8 wks well clean-up & production testing
(Aside) With OEX it pays to go back over previous announcements with a fine tooth comb, because you don't get any reminders!
So when RM says "Oilex will advise the market of a stabilized flow rate via a production test once frac fluid return and clean-up operations have been completed", could mean any jolly old time over the next 3 weeks.
In relation to this please also see below for another borrow of pertinent posts from our UK brothers.
[Any annotation & added emphasis with bold text etc is my doing.]
I note the folowing from the RNS of 04/08/14:-"The well planning including flow-back and clean-up was predicated upon gas and condensate and the recovery of crude oil and gas may influence the duration required for Cambay-77H to clean-up prior to commencement of any production testing"ie the timings may be different from the original plans.They also said:-"Oilex will advise the market of a stabilized flow rate via a production test once frac fluid return and clean-up operations have been completed."It would have seemed sensible to make an announcement when clean up is complete, rather wait until production test is complete. Although the wording "stabilized flow rate via a production test" seems a bit ambiguous as to whether that means once the production test flow has initially settled or whether it means the flow at the end of the test.
A long term test gives more accurate data although the tight hole conditions may unerve some investors by the lack of news. On the flip side if say the well is producing a decent flow of oil each day which is then sold on - then that is a welcome revenue stream. Say for example 400bbls a day for 30 days thats a million bucks before the 45% split to Oilex and taxes etc.joatmon.
[A very cogent posting!!] That is my assumption too... but then I also thought that KEA and RMP had found oil and not water.Here, the biggest risk is that the oil/gas flow and pressure could continue (?) to drop, without stabilising, down to a level which makes the well un-commercial; which might be through oil blockages in the fine fractures or insufficient gas in the surrounding area able to get through to the fractures, and able to bring the oil with it.On the plus side, API 50 oil is light and thin, and is unlikely to block the fractures if it is already proven to flow through the surrounding sands (proven by our collection of oil barrels so far) & the gas flow pressure was quite high when we started.However, we don't really know how thick and wide the source sands are, nor whether the oil is spread consistently at any particular thickness. In an ideal world, the oil will be mixed thoroughly with the gas (like condensate does usually), so that all gas (under pressure) will bring out the light oil with it... Modelling the reservoir and the "reserves" may be quite difficult here for OEX if the field content varies; and it would then be more difficult to determine the optimum number of wells over the whole field for exploitation.Clearly, the higher the sustained flow of oil/gas, the more commercial the well(s) will be and the fewer numbers which will potentially be required.I just hope the news will be good
So, according to RNS, flowback had commenced by 14th July. THat means we are in week 5. nice.SOmebody with better skills/knowledge than myself - if the performance/findings were not great OEX would give up part way/RNS to save costs and move on? I'm assuming so, its not bad news so far !!BTA
Mr_Whitchurch
