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Calm before the storm., page-32

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bobla

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19/08/14

14:31

Post #: 13839550
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Originally posted by chillam ↑

Ok, how about this for another take re announcement timings.

Knowns/Assumptions (Not exhaustive)
. Ron is not completely incompetent or stupid (A).
. Ron not only acts in accordance with his fiduciary responsibilities but also his personal interests as a substantial share holder (A).
. We don't know Magna's ultimate intentions regarding OEX/Cambay (A/K).
. Ron reported immediately on initial positive well response after plug milling (K).
. Initial strong flow rates: over pressure, flaring gas, greater than expected flows of condensate/light oil API50 (K).
. No indication of any negatives following original 21/7 announcement or Quarterly Report (K).
. Magna has previously expressed satisfaction that Ron has been meeting timing-line and expectations (K).
. Ron gave no specific timings of next announcement (K).
. "Oilex will advise the market of a stabilized flow rate via a production test once frac fluid return and clean-up operations have been completed" - from both 21/7 & 4/8 announcements (K).

Conclusions
. Ron has Cambay matters under control and is progressing.
. Clear & strong repeated statements by Ron of his intention to proceed with stabilising flow rate and advising the market via a production test once frac fluid return and clean-up operations have been completed.
. Progress with clean-up/stabilising flow rates has not been completed and/or production testing has not reached a stage where Ron feels obliged to report to market.
. No major problems as Ron would be required to report (materiality).

Strategic Perspective
This does not preclude Ron from playing matters strategically and making the next announcement when he has overwhelming/indisputable news on commerciality, one way or the other.

If the news is positive it will ensure the market has the opportunity to set a fair market price before any take-over offers are forthcoming.

Thereby, cutting off any low-ball offers on positive but inconclusive news. Remember Magna is being advised by one of the very best O&G operators with huge depth of knowledge of the Indian/Cambay oil situation.

It would also allow a statement laying out a clear & detailed plan for field development, the next wells etc and/or sets out details of a take-over offer.

Expand

Agree Chill, was thinking the same thing he will inform market when he has stabilised flow rate not after clean up but after stabilised well performance.
Had to change well head frac tree due to pressure leak, still flaring gas so plenty of pressure present. Still looks on track to me, he stated well displayed all the signs of a successful well for oilex.
Still looks good to me...cheers.

OEX Price at posting: 17.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
7 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Calm before the storm., page-32

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