OEX 20.0% 0.6¢ oilex ltd

Calm before the storm., page-30

  1. 1,409 Posts.
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    Ok, how about this for another take re announcement timings.

    Knowns/Assumptions (Not exhaustive)
    . Ron is not completely incompetent or stupid (A).
    . Ron not only acts in accordance with his fiduciary responsibilities but also his personal interests as a substantial share holder (A).  
    . We don't know Magna's ultimate intentions regarding OEX/Cambay (A/K).  
    . Ron reported immediately on initial positive well response after plug milling (K).
    . Initial strong flow rates: over pressure, flaring gas, greater than expected flows of condensate/light oil API50 (K).
    . No indication of any negatives following original 21/7 announcement or Quarterly Report (K).
    . Magna has previously expressed satisfaction that Ron has been meeting timing-line and expectations (K).
    . Ron gave no specific timings of next announcement (K).
    . "Oilex will advise the market of a stabilized flow rate via a production test once frac fluid return and clean-up operations have been completed" - from both 21/7 & 4/8 announcements (K).

    Conclusions
    . Ron has Cambay matters under control and is progressing.
    . Clear & strong repeated statements by Ron of his intention to proceed with stabilising flow rate and advising the market via a production test once frac fluid return and clean-up operations have been completed.
    . Progress with clean-up/stabilising flow rates has not been completed and/or production testing has not reached a stage where Ron feels obliged to report to market.
    . No major problems as Ron would be required to report (materiality).

    Strategic Perspective
    This does not preclude Ron from playing matters strategically and making the next announcement when he has overwhelming/indisputable news on commerciality, one way or the other.

    If the news is positive it will ensure the market has the opportunity to set a fair market price before any take-over offers are forthcoming.

    Thereby, cutting off any low-ball offers on positive but inconclusive news. Remember Magna is being advised by one of the very best O&G operators with huge depth of knowledge of the Indian/Cambay oil situation.

    It would also allow a statement laying out a clear & detailed plan for field development, the next wells etc and/or sets out details of a take-over offer.
 
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