I’ve posted on CAB before and it was a great short for me that I...

I’ve posted on CAB before and it was a great short for me that I have just reopened.
I agree with nearly everything that Ryan has been saying. One of the things that has surprised me is that from everything I have heard, taxi’s revenues have dropped hugely since Uber came in-say 40%. Yet outside of the fee cap impacts, cabcharge hasn’t seen anywhere near this impact. How can this be? This question has baffled me but I have a theory.
If you look at the revenue/taxi it has declined every year from $146k/yr in FY16 to $105k/yr in FY18.
But this decline has been offset by an increase in taxis paying their subscription fees to CAB post regulation changes.
Drivers I have spoken to say that even though taxi incomes aren’t what they used to be, because riding taxis is more expensive than Uber the money is still about the same even though you don’t get as many jobs as with Uber.
My guess is that we are at about the break even point now between earning in a taxi or rideshare and that with the next year’s growth in ride share (people telling their elderly parents about it, people using it for business as well as pleasure) that the earning potential with a taxi will drop below an Uber. When that happens, drivers will drop off the CAB system which will accelerate their falls.
Any thoughts anyone?