it may not be possible to get the price ?..I’m guessing .35c...

First 17 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
cara

12,496 Posts.

57

17/03/19

21:37

Post #: 37791313
Share

Originally posted by stumpytrunks: ↑

Nothing too ground breaking from me, unfortunately. I'd say the majority of larger long term holders sold out to Purcell/sold around that time. The majority of long term holders would be smaller bottom draw style holders. A lot would be hesitant of both Purcell and Keybridge. Purcell appeared to want control of the company; Keybridge have historically targeted cash boxes. It's hard to know what current motives are and that is a risk in itself.

As far as the share price goes - I think the company is currently being viewed as a financier of other operations, rather than a bona fide explorer. The two exploration efforts under the current management have, unfortunately, been unsuccessful. As such I think the market is discounting the company as they haven't proven that they can play the oil game yet. The financing side of the operation is construed as being constrained, as the majority of capital has been deployed in BYE. As such the market sees it as unlikely that another BYE type deal would occur in the near term. The Cooper blocks will require capital and the market is viewing them as early stage still - so unlikely to add significant value in the short term and therefore valued as a cash drag. With the SM74 drill delayed again there hasn't been any real value attributed to it.

As such, the value of the company is seen as cash value, with discounts for lack of exploration success, perceived financial inflexibility, and Cooper requiring cash. SM74 delays have resulted in limited value being attributed to this, given the drill results will be around 2 months away.

I personally value the company differently as I believe that they could sell the BYE stake at a premium in a block trade, have a solid technical crew and have a great bit of ground in ATP2021 with a farm-out likely. SM74 really looks good, but it certainly is a binary outcome: success is a company maker; failure sees a low cash balance and subsequent reduction in value of the BYE assets. It's nowhere near RMP level in terms of consequences, but there is a risk that it goes into the high 3's in a failure case.

Short answer - the big catalyst is at least 2 months away and I believe that everything else is being viewed as a risk/cash drag rather than an asset. Hopefully a farm out and articulation of forward program details will reverse this.

Expand

it may not be possible to get the price ?..I’m guessing .35c minimum..but they really should be looking to move perhaps their entire holdings in BYE pre SM74...and they still have is it 10m options at .25c.
Shouldnt be putting all the eggs in one result...also if it does dust out or get stuck etc...they’ll have the funds to reactivate the buyback and limit the downside and pick up some at a discount....

MEL Price at posting: 4.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 46, 2024

AN1

CuFe sells its Crossroads gold royalty to Northern Star for $4M cash; says better than waiting for mine launch

EDE

NT Gov't delivers environmental approval for Empire Energy's Beetaloo Carpentaria pilot gas play

Week 46 Wrap: Copper hits 2mth low as Trump threatens net zero pace; US rally fades; HotCopper’s picks

BTH

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

AUN

Cyclone signs MOU with Vale for development of Iron Bear play

GRL

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

BNL

Blue Star Helium sees approval for five more wells at 'Galactica/Pegasus' project in Colorado

ME1

Banshee's historic trenches prove rich in antimony and gold for GDM

LYN

InhaleRX gains approval for clinical trial to test non-opioid therapy for cancer pain

There are more pages in this discussion • 9 more messages in this thread...

First 17 Last

Add MEL (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 0.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $4.342M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.5¢	0.5¢	0.5¢	$136	27.2K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
6	13004389	0.4¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.5¢	777334	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	10000	0.047
1	131932	0.046
2	110000	0.045
1	100000	0.042
1	50000	0.041

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.052	25657	1
0.054	54653	1
0.055	194892	1
0.058	40000	1
0.060	500000	1

Last trade - 15.32pm 15/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

MEL (ASX) Chart

it may not be possible to get the price ?..I’m guessing .35c...

Top Stories

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 46, 2024

CuFe sells its Crossroads gold royalty to Northern Star for $4M cash; says better than waiting for mine launch

NT Gov't delivers environmental approval for Empire Energy's Beetaloo Carpentaria pilot gas play

Week 46 Wrap: Copper hits 2mth low as Trump threatens net zero pace; US rally fades; HotCopper’s picks

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

Cyclone signs MOU with Vale for development of Iron Bear play

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Blue Star Helium sees approval for five more wells at 'Galactica/Pegasus' project in Colorado

Banshee's historic trenches prove rich in antimony and gold for GDM

InhaleRX gains approval for clinical trial to test non-opioid therapy for cancer pain

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)