I can only reiterate that the sort of things you are concerned about, and which @trader_10 makes much noise about, are the sort of issues that tend to make headlines and attract viewers/readers. In short, it is exceedingly unlikely that they are not already priced in to markets and equities.
Also, they are the sort of indicators that to to tell us where we've been rather than where we're headed.
I agree with your intention of trying to pay a low price, and it is something I desire too. But paying too much attention to these macro indicators and fears is liable to lead us to running with the herd. The "shorts" also tend to pay much attention to these sorts of fears. I personally have never found a reason to give more credit to those that go short, than to those that go long.
I think it best to try to pay a good price based on a cautious assessment of though-the-cycle values, and leave it at that.
But if I am going to pay attention to the macro, then I see two things:
I see headline making fears about indebted consumers, high house prices, an economy that should be due for a recession etc, which I expect will be priced in, and which only have a tenuous ability to tell us where we are actually headed.
I then see that the US economy is gathering strength, that the much trumpeted China crash is not happening, and that the Eurozone is also gathering strength. I then also see that an index that is actually designed to measure leading activity (unlike GDP for example), and that thus may actually indicate where things are headed in the medium term, is headed up for not only the US, Eurozone and China, it is also headed up for Australia (https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=7).
HVN Price at posting:
$3.44 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
