@Madtrader there is nothing better than finding a thread on HC in which people have taken the time to analyse various fundamentals. Well done and thank you! I challenge others to build on this analysis
P.S I have posted after your analysis.... but only now have I read your post in detail.[/QUOTE
Mad trader, Good stuff. My question is even if you assume the value if the PDL is lower than current book value , even by 20-30% , and if you ascribe a value to try services part of the business , then it's cheap.
The value of the company has dropped 60% since its peak. The level of forward collections determines the book value , and thus it's hard to believe that the value of the entire business has dropped 60%.
Future earnings will only be impacted to a large extent if PDL reduce purchases substantially over the medium term.
I see your point about the sensitivities but I think these are more than factored into current SP. buying at 2 in hindsight now seems expensing ST, but buying at these levels seem safe