Buyback strategy

Ok... so I was thinking last night of this buyback and a strategy, and I'm just wondering if someone can tell me a glaringly obvious risk I might be missing here or not.

I am thinking of tendering all the shares in our SMSF which is in pension stage for the buyback.  We paid around $34 for them, so at a 14% discount we'll "lose" around $4.76, but will pick up the $12~ in refunded franking credits and pick up substantial CGT losses to carry forward.  From my understanding, the downside is not being able to participate in any upward share price due to the cancellation of 7.5% of the shares on offer, and the special dividend in January.  We were intending to re purchase the shares before then, but I am thinking with a lot of superfund doing exactly this, the share price may bounce up a bit over the next month as volumes are high, so we may not be able to get back with the same number of shares we had at the same price.  

However, I am considering buying on market the same size parcel of shares that I am tendering for buyback today, so that we could beat the scramble for shares before the special dividend is announced.  What am I missing?  As far as I can see, the biggest risk is that maybe not all of our tender will be taken up, so we might wind up with some more shares than we had originally held... If we don't take the offer, we will hold the shares anyway, so it seems this strategy should give us the ability to hold our position where it is, while picking up the franking refund and some CGT losses with the only cost being some brokerage...  someone school me on where I'm being naive here please??