I think your analysis won't be far off the mark in terms of EPS...

I think your analysis won't be far off the mark in terms of EPS and dividends paid, PGR have over $40m in franking credits alone on the books so the recent write down of Metallicus brand will have no effect and in fact there may a write back if that brand sales improve.

It appears the wholesale business transition has caused a temporary blip in the business and EBITDA in FY16 may well be over $30m now. It looks like the USA PE firm (19%) and the very savvy local private investor who now has about 10% will make a killing on their investments during the SP sell down.

Brokers will now put out buy recommendations and I expect this trend changing result will see the SP close to a dollar in the next 6 months.