buy some rum for xmas, page-25

agreed, though maybe different route to get there

based on Strachan's assumptions (which are going to be mgt's assumptions too) re project size, capex, production, 2016 start etc...

RUM's Barrow Creek today worth is around the 95-115 today if you assume:

a) 100% debt finance (which it won't be)
b) the project is 100% derisked and is proceeding to production (which it's not)
c) current $a and phosphate prices (which will change)
d) 10-15% discount rate (which is a guess at the right rate)

RUM is 34, about 30% of the 95-115 project value. 30% seems fair looking at other stocks at similar project stage. RUM trading at 100 in the near term (without significant changes to the projects) is like STB trading at 600, a great sell.

so...
30-35 market-weight fair value 30%
90-115 full 100% value and too expensive given project stage

development milestones in the next 6months
scope
offtake mou
pfs starts

thumb in the air...
50-60% seems right

so...
50-70cps