Antman,I wouldn't go as far as putting a number on it but I do...

Antman,

I wouldn't go as far as putting a number on it but I do see your appraisal as being accurate and agree that the flow rates for the two upcoming fracks will be on the lower side.

As I mentioned in my OP on this thread, BPT management **are forecasting** lower flows from these **particular** fracks as the well diameter is too wide for optimal flow rates due to the coring that was undertaken.

I think it is important for HC members to understand the purpose of the two upcoming fracks. It is **not** for the purpose of extracting **commercial flow rates**. It is simply for the purpose of identifying the optimal zone within the REM.

With regard to your comments re. "pad drilling". During recent discussion, BPT management have made two comments of relevance:

1. Although they are expecting **relatively** low flow rates from the two fracks, **IF** the flows were significantly higher than expected, then they may consider pad drilling as an alternative to horizontal drilling.

2. If the flow rates are as they **forecast** then it makes more sense to undertake horizontal drilling as per the original plan.

So in summary, BPT's view is closely in line with your own view re. flow versus fracking options.

With regard to your numbers re. number of pads, cost and gas return.........

I have undertaken a similar exercise using the numbers received from BPT re. well cost/extractable gas forecast and I see the capex payback being less than one year (excluding any additional Opex).

So, whilst our numbers are not identical (your Capex is lower) based on the info that I have received to date, I agree that 218 will be making a handsome profit for many years to come and that the project is undeniably very commercial so long as the flow rates are in the ballpark.

Colquhoun ................

I think you are misinterpreting Antmans comments re. REM thickness. He is comparing the 1500m of "horizontal" fracking area in the US versus the 80m "vertical" fracking for 218.

As you have correctly pointed out, the actual formations are comparable and the 218 REM is at least as good in every respect to the existing commercial operations. Antman was simply trying to forecast an intial flow rate base on the horizontal versus vertical **exposed** areas.

I can see there is some nervous excitement creeping into the forum as we lead up to fracking. All very healthy and understandable given the huge upside potential here. My only word of advice (for what it's worth) is to understand the true purpose of the **initial** fracking. The results will come in relatively lower which is perfectly fine and expected.

A good way to look at it is that the initial frack serves a similar purpose to the coring. It is only a yardstick and stepping stone for the purpose of undertaking commercial fracking in the correct zone (the pilot well).

Remember what you own so far. Best case scenario to date with **all** outcomes being at least equal to the currently commercial operations in the US.

This is such an exciting time in the life of ADE. A tiny small cap who managed to acquire and farm out THE sweet spot in the best shale gas region of Australia.

Bring it on!!!!!!