I think your FY17 core NPAT forecast of $30m+ is potentially...

I think your FY17 core NPAT forecast of $30m+ is potentially optimistic, subject to the positive impact of AFLW per the article you posted. The reason has to do with the combined distorting effects of the Olympics and PRT's inability to control cost of sales.

In FY14-FY16 - non-Olympic years - PRT's revenue split between 1H and 2H has been remarkably consistent at 52-48. However, in the last Olympic year (FY13), the revenue split went 56-44 - when the Olympics are on, advertisers tend to spend a greater portion of their annual budgets during the Olympics (when more people are watching Channel 7 / Prime).

1HFY17 revenue was $131m, so if you apply the same 56-44 split as last seen in FY13, you get to a 2HFY17 revenue figure of $103m. PRT's average cost of sales during second halves from FY12-FY16 (i.e. the average across five years) was $64m - the lowest cost of sales figure was $61m in 2HFY13 (i.e. they broadcasted cheap programming off the back of the Olympics held in 1HFY13), and the highest was $67m in 2HFY14. Assuming PRT does in 2HFY17 what it did in 2HFY13 (i.e. broadcast cheap programming off the back of 1HFY17's Olympics), let's say PRT's 2HFY13 cost of sales is $60m.

On revenue of $103m and $60m cost of sales, you get to $43m 2HFY17 gross profit. Less $25m broadcasting & admin expense gives $18m 2HFY18m EBITDA; less $5m D&A gives $13m EBIT; less $1m interest gives $12m EBT; equates to ~$9m 2HFY17 NPAT. Given 1HFY17 NPAT of ~$17m, results in FY17 NPAT of ~$26m.

The potential offset to all of the above is the AFLW - as per the article you posted, it appears as though C7/Prime will get a little kick (pun intended) from the success of their AFLW broadcast. That said, i think it's asking quite a bit of the AFLW to fill what looks to me a ~$6m EBITDA hole (~$4m NPAT hole) to get to an FY17 NPAT of $30m. Remember that the AFLW was only a 6-week inaugural season, which i suspect means advertisers would treat it a bit like the Olympics - they'd probably spend a little more during that 6-week period, and then simply reduce their expenditure in following months as their annual budgets have been spent during AFLW.