Hello Pioupiou .....that’s quite a high value contract you have augured there..
When I spun the teapot of coincidence, the spout ended up pointing at Rio but you may be right about FMG given what were perhaps clearer clues than mine in the Interim Report ;
“Outlook
Key target opportunities identified in previous outlook commentaries included securing work on Iron Ore sustaining tonnes programmes.
Progress to date has been extremely positive following the award of South Flank for BHP in July 2018,
the award from Rio Tinto of the Koodaideri Plant site announced in January 2019
and the award of the first rail package on Eliwana for Fortescue Metals Group announced in February 2019.”
As to value ...
If it is so big ....wow!
I don’t think we would need anything else this year to achieve target.
In relation to this , NRW estimated it would earn $1.1 billion revenue in FY 2019.
Close to $523 million was achieved by December 30, leaving $580 million to go.
This seems reasonable - even without a single big contract - given a comment at the AGM along the lines of ‘we’re already almost there’ which has been backed up by the fundamental analysis here on the forum.
My own simplistic take on this is that jobs in hand ( or some of them ); Altura, Stanmore, Curragh and Baralaba are supplying recurring revenue to June 2021 and beyond.
The bulk earthworks etc at South Flank are contracted through to December 2019
Carrapateena is done, Rio’s Marandoo job was due to finish in February, and the $7 million restoration work/landform trials for Rio at Argyle Diamond Mine is also finished.
Gascoyne - should be secure at least until December 2019...
On top of this is the so far uncounted traditional revenue flow from RCR
There is also Golding urban and smaller jobs such as the Talison lithium mind at Greenbushes and Pacific Highway roadworks.
Plus FAL...and all the rest ...
In this reporting season Rio’s new contract -
Koodaideri Bulk Earthworks January 24, 2019 worth $65 million more than offsets the completion of the 44 week $37 million Rio project at Marandoo (and 175 workers at Koodaideri rather than 100 at Marandoo means there will be more revenue.)
So (still thinking basically), in order to achieve target NRW has to replace revenue from Carrapateena plus any others I haven’t looked at yet (Maybe someone with more knowledge (
@pbawley?
@Josh01 or you, Pioupiou can fill me in on older projects that have been completed recently.)
........Then add $57 million more .
Voila!
Whilst I love the fairy floss and the ‘ride’ when the price runs I am thinking, given the macro economic/global/political climate and the fickle stock market it would a be a good strategy for long term company health to ‘coast’ through to the end of this financial year with a view to keeping reserves in hand for FY 2020 and beyond.
But obviously the clients are the ones with the power in relation to this timing and they are moving with speed so who knows what is in store for us over the next 16 weeks to EOFY ...
(20min delay)
