Again, this is fairly low risk/impact but for the sake of chat...

Again, this is fairly low risk/impact but for the sake of chat I'll say:

"So there may be a $12 million cashflow shortfall on what was expected?"

Given we don't know what cash position was expected it would be hard to identify this but yes $12m less than otherwise is likely in H1

"the glass half-emptiest of all would be to take it directly off the earnings?"

Yes, or take off a risk adjusted amount - e.g 50% chance of GCY paying up in short notice, so take $6m off. This only makes sense to me if there was a number of these scenarios in play and you were looking to be add them up and work out some kind of aggregate probable outcome. AJM's CR means it seems good for now, and as we've discussed here the industry outlook is positive.

In terms of impact, 2 questions might be:
1. How close to the line is NRW going for cash now? (Given it bought RCR for cash and looking at the trajectory from FY2018 I'd say it's all good.)
2. How comfortable am I as an investor that there is no systemic problem propping up? (Samsung was a disaster, but aside from that NRW seems really focussed on long term relationships but also doing profitable work only. Witness the way they have maintained margins while also winning high profile contracts with well established clients. GCY and AJM are struggling to become profitable however, but represent a strategic push for NRW big pushes into gold and lithium, giving some tolerance for a little more risk. We saw with Empire Resources that their desire to win work has some bounds. All up I'm very comfortable that NRW are approaching this the right way for us shareholders. No risk at all = no reward).

Also, short term cash not being an issue, NRW has collateral for the GCY loan (which I'd expect would yield at least some cash eventually if all went pear shaped).