Bullish Sign? - Bounced off 200 EMA, page-2572

I have just requested the two posts above to be deleted because they confirm (for me)  NRW Holdings is a great company to be invested in and to invest further in if opportunity presents itself, but I cited a story predicting a global recession and that’s what plenty of other experts also seem to be predicting and that kind of stuff is only helpful if there is a ‘lifeline’ given.
It was too depressing.
And I didn’t want to spread fear mongering .

So to excerpt the relevant bits:


I have done a bit of  a a review of NRW Holding’s  changes, including price changes,  since the Macquarie Presentation  on October 15 seven weeks ago  reminding of the FY 2018 Results.
https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYD4wq8yBmZruBxke92GA==



The close that day was $1.97 .
Current price is $1.53

Since October 15, (in no particular order) various value adding activities have been announced :

- NWH offered a comparatively small short term loan to its client, Gascoyne Resources (intended to tide it over so a bad space so it might continue to pay NRW for the next five years and possibly longer .)

-It secured Early Contract Involvement at Ironbark No 1 ; see here
“FITZROY Resources' Ironbark No 1 coal project in Queensland should be shovel ready by the second half of 2018 ”
https://www.miningmonthly.com/mines/international-coal-news/1333494/ironbark-shovel-ready-by-h2-201

-It faced some negative press about the Forrestfield Tunnel Project ie who caused delays and was there potential for an insurance claim .
Apparently the client was to blame along with Perth Airport, and there is potential for an insurance claim.
(Whilst this logically might have had little impact on price, the ‘news’ the project timeline had been officially extended coincided with a savage shorting attack .)

-It released an excellent market guidance as to half year results here.

“Highlights
 Revenue (1) is expected at around $500 million - up 45% on the same period last year
 EBITDA (2) is expected to be around $70 million compared to $40.3 million in the prior
comparative period
 Earnings (3) are expected to be circa $45 million, an increase of 100% over the same
period last year.”


-Finally, a few days ago, it announced a useful contract worth $57 Million (here).
Trading that day reached a brief high of $1.69 then fell to close LOWER than open at $1.615 .


The current prices are not consistent with company intrinsic value.
Notably since the New Year’s Eve announcement,  across four days, just over two million shares have been traded ( 2,011,465) dragging the price from $1.65 down to $1.53 (by my estimate 7.27% lower).

In the first three, short sales were more than 50% of trades (587,402 of 1,097,2088).
We find out on Monday if that average was mantained on Friday.



As I see it, NRW Holdings is quietly presenting a picture of robust health and apparently looking at a secure future stretching into the years ahead.
According to CFO Andrew Walsh after the AGM FY 19 is shaping up for business as “a cracker of a year “

And good luck to o everyone
Cheers