PB
PB
Your statement, “. . .and if we assume it's a solid reasonable-margin contract - NRW track record, the fact that they have explicitly said they are more conservative these days after Samsung . . .” interests me, because I remember reading about the matter underlined, but I could not remember the Announcement in which that sentiment was expressed. Could you let me know?
The point that I wanted to make in a post that I did not make, because I went off on a tangent to locate the information requested above, is that there are things that make up an investor's valuation of a stock that are less likely to be articulated than are the facts that can be enumerated, such as expected revenue, expected margin, debt position, published levels of investment in relevant-to-the-stock sectors, et cetera. Less patent factors can relate to the quality of management, which includes changed behaviour arising from bad experience.
In respect to the Baralaba Announcement, it is not unusual for a company, either an end-user or a prime contractor, to attempt to get a service supplier to do work for no profit on the basis that the service supplier would thus position itself to gain work later. If a company has been burned in this way, it would be more disciplined in future, especially if its circumstances allowed it to walk away. The words in the Announcement, “Pursuant to the LNTP, Golding will immediately commence certain preliminary services at commercial rates with the parties bound to seek to negotiate in good faith the outstanding commercial terms of a final binding contract mining agreement.”, suggest that: a) NWH is unlikely to be giving away its margin to stay in the box seat; and b) the Samsung experience would make NWH more careful in the articulation of the final agreement to have specific provisions covering dispute resolution that, among other things, stated a specific dispute resolution arbiter, and the applicable legal jurisdiction to which aggrieved parties can appeal.
Being in the Top 300 helps to drum up some buyer support, and moving to the TOP 200 would exaggerate any upward SP movement occasioned by good news, and the last mentioned fillip would in itself cause NWH to make the Top 200. It's all a matter of belief. I'll stick to my $2.00-this-calendar-year hope as being reasonable.
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