Originally posted by Lazarus65
Dave...the market is made up of many types of investors, with many types of outlooks, with many investment timeframes. Thankfully so! If we all saw it one way and one way only, there would be no market. You have repeatedly made your views very clear and that the Short term SP and quarterly results are your prime metric. Fine. But why do you either discount or discredit other perspectives. Such as those who only buy in intending to hold for many years until the company is an established big player or swallowed up by a bigger player. And hence view every result and quarterly announcement through the prism of movement towards such a goal. Recognizing that the road followed may be different to the journey planned and that sometimes progress is painstaking and not overtly obvious. These type of investors are also looking for signs of life or triggers to bail, but these triggers are not as sensitive as those with much, much shorter time horizons. Neither are wrong. Nor are the various other types sitting between these two ends of the spectrum.
My portfolio consists of ST to MT trades, medium term investments and long term punts. For me, BUD is in the latter category, and truth be told, was always in that category from RTO Times...even if I was temporarily seduced by short term misconceptions of overnight Ohm triggered multi bag exit points.
While I have been frustrated with the mismanagement of expectations set by DM, and strongly believe an independent chair would benefit him as CEO and all shareholders, it is actually DM and his ebullience and skin in the game that helps fortify my conviction in the long game. His ability to course correct and continually seek to be on the front foot with opportunities and threats, is a major asset IMO. Granted, we are at the point (this CY) where potential has to materially translate to results, but I am comfortable that we will make significant headway on this front. If we don’t, I will reassess as to whether the LT goal is conceivable and or plausible. And act accordingly.
Meanwhile I am happy-ish. I care less about what was promised (though that is a major frustration), than where I perceive we are on the road to our potential. I perceive that Ohm has genuine potential still, but that BUD has now worked out through the trenches that control is essential; that flexibility in pricing/bundling will be key; that channels take serious time, effort and skill to get going, and even then will never be ‘set and forget’; that direct sales will still be important; that Ohm needs to be continually improved and refined. Invaluable lessons learned, and in my experience lessons that can only be learned through experience. An experience that would never have been gained working within Microsoft. I am also comfortable with where Buddy Cloud is sitting and the obvious opportunities within the Thor group and perhaps within the broader automotive space. I am also happy that they allow the big boys to sort out, test and negotiate the GDPR implications of alternate data collection and sales, and meanwhile keep Parse going and also ensure Ohm data and ‘exhaust data’ from Works with Ohm continues to be collected. I look forward to seeing how we bed down the synergies as well as unlock opportunities afforded by the LIFX acquisition. While focus on one thing till it gets traction is typically a good thing, so to is the continual development of options for further growth, diversification and contingency. I hope they can strike the right balance. I see no reason why they can’t.
I recognize that others use a different prism and a different timeframe. I wish them all luck.
All the above is IMO.
I will answer your question on why BUD isn't a long term play.
That's because cash burn is too high, so if it takes BUD four years to get to cash flow positive, they will need to raise again which means more dilution. The MC of BUD is already insane, like so insane. So in order for shareholders to make any money at all this becomes difficult.
I understand long term plays it's important but BUD clearly isn't if DM wants to add SH value. He needs to hit his target of cash flow or SH can kiss a profit goodbye.
LIFX to me is still a young company with a few issue as well, like debt and things like that. So if LIFX can't go fast to cash flow positive we will burn into the rest of the cash reserves and raise again.
This isn't a concern it clearly will happen if BUD continues to struggle.
Like I said facts are facts and with a MC of 170 mill not including the debt taken on with LIFX you can move that number up. Also both companies are not making a profit so that's a big issue.
Like I said DM needs to hit a target for once or it's bye bye to making a profit.
It really is s short term play at present a year or two to see if BUD will make it. OHM business is the problem and the next 4c will be telling if it's hidden you know DM is doing the dodgy.
All IMO and remember making money is more important than a 1000 likes, all IMO.
