bright green on a red day, page-3

Good Oil

We won't see 30c again. at least for some time.

As I see it.

OMV/ENI have to make a decision, however if they don't elect to drill then they loose all four blocks back to OXX.
I think that it is a fair bet that they will drill.

Then:

1. OXX pays its way for 40% (or farms down to someone at a latter date)
2. Is reduced to 20% for a free carry of 2 wells in that permit by OMV/ENI
3. Steps aside from that permit and walks away with 16mUS.

Now 3 is OXX's choice.
As to 1 or 2 I am unsure as to whether it is at OMV/ENI or OXX's behest.

Makes little difference in any case.
Although I don't think for one minute that OXX would walk let us say that they did:
The 16m US equates to 17.5m AUD

177m shares + 30 opts - 33m Dovedale = 174 m shares fully diluted.

So if OXX walked on that one permit it would be worth 10cps.
Cash plus liquid investments is about 30cps so we would be up to 40cps. And remember there are still 3 permits in the deal to go.

Been reading the hype regarding MEO spruiking Artemis.
coming up with $3.65 unrisked for 20% of 12 TCF.

Using
20% share, 90c exchange rate,$0.50US mcf, we get an unrisked value of 64c per TCF per share for OXX. They a talking elephant country here who knows, however an Artemis size prospect would would have an unrisked value of 12x .64. $7.00 odd. There is a lot of country there, who knows.
Then I could start talking about the Shell blocks. Apart from the discovery payments isn't a 1% ORR equivilant to about 7% free carried. And there is lots more as well as you know.
People are struggling to value OXX but I believe that it is still well north of where it is now. Irrespective, because it is so tightly held there is virtually no stock available and I don't see that changing even at much higher prices.