I thought I would leave all the market talk for the other threads and open a new thread to offer an update and other feedback for those interested.
Well, the news is good!!!
Three fracks have been successfully completed to date, with the fourth starting today. Patchawarra has been completed/fracked successfully and they are now moving onto Epsilon and Roseneath.
A very important point worth mentioning here is that when asked about the "biggest risk factor", the feedback from the Geo's was that the rock may not actually frack at all. **This risk has now been totally negated!**
Importantly, management are very confident now as the Geo's always anticipated that Patchawarra would be the most difficult to frack and the least likely to frack successfully. Not only was it successful but it fracked in the "most structurally beneficial way"...........
a) If it had been a "pancake frack" than that would have limited their production wells to vertical pad wells instead of the more efficient and better producing horizontal wells. However, structurally, the shale has cracked in the best possible way which now allows them complete flexibility with regard to production well planning.
b) Also, from a flow perspective the type of frack that has been achieved to date actually spreads out better which is now likely to provide better flows for the horizontal production wells.
Interestingly, *different* tracer chemicals are applied at the various stages so that they can measure the varying percentages when the plugs are released. This allows them to determine which area offers the best relative flow.
FYI, Had further discussion re. flow rate impediments. In addition to the previously discussed, well diameter, concrete volume, etc, one of the biggest factors is that the water pressure used for this stage is actually a lot less than what will be used during the pilot well fracking. So, basically, less water pressure = less relative flow.
In addition, the horizontal production wells are fracked at full water pressure in up to 20 stages over a distance of 1.6 km versus the lower pressure frack over 8 stages on a distance of c. 400 metres.
That said, these guys are very very happy with the progress to date. Absolutely zero concern from them at this point in time.
We discussed project economics and specifically the BPT "UBS Australian Resources and Energy Conference" release............
These guys have obviously undertaken their internal modelling and are confident, regardless of what the "analysts" have to say. Of note, we discussed the BG & goodrich data (slides 18& 19) and the relative differences between the two locations.
They have a break even of c. $3.20/mmbtu or GJ but more importantly, **this is inclusive** of land acquisition costs **and** 25%-30% royalties.
BPT have no pending acquisition cost and due to the geographical location, only have one family affected, with whom they have had happy relations with for many years and already have a payment system in place. So, we now have $3.20 less 100% of acquisition costs and circa 75% less net royalties.
So, market aside, everything is well on track and results continue to be best case scenario!!! Really, an outstanding outcome to date!
Hope this is of some use to those interested!
ADE Price at posting:
12.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held