Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

BPG

Click for more information

0.00%

0.9¢ byte power group limited

Good post mate. Very balanced

First 2 Last

Billya

1,205 Posts.

5

26/06/18

10:23

Post #: 33947490

Originally posted by msn81 ↑

Guys,
There’s a bit of noise around SP Projections at open. IMO this is jumping the gun – possibly a few months away – so too early for these discussion. Fun to speculate, but some wild numbers have been thrown around; 2c to 10c and beyond. I thought I’d provide my 2c here (Pun intended - 2c would be nice J but I’m not suggesting that)!

Item 1 – Additional 830m Shares in Market
Comparing December (when BPG went into Suspension) and now (closer to hopefully coming out of suspension).

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

1
December ‘17
June ‘18

2 Number of Outstanding Shares
2,235,069,989
3,065,069,989

3 Market Cap (at 0.009)
$20,115,629
$27,585,629

If we take the Market Cap at Suspension then divide it by the total shares outstanding after those 830 mil shares were issued, BPG would have a diluted SP of 0.0065.

That said;
Monday 30/10/2017 – Notice of AGM – Shareholders receive notice of proposal to issue 830m shares
Friday 15/12/2017 – AGM – Shareholders vote on issuing 830m shares
Monday 18/12/2017 – Results of AGM – Shareholders receive notice of issuing 830m shares approved
Friday 22/12/2017 (2pm – Suspension).

Based on the above, the market was aware of these 830m shares proposal and to be issued for a couple of months, and for 4.5 days after the AGM that they were approved to be issued and the SP didn’t drop significantly during this time – so you could argue the dilution has already been factored in to the 0.009 Share Price.
IMO - Item 1 Impact to SP: Slightly Negative (-0.001) 830m shares factored in already.

Item 2 – Operational Cash/Cash In Bank

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

1
December ‘17
June ‘18

2 Cash in Bank
(closest Reported Appendix 4C)
$176,000
$681,000

3 Issued Notes (Debt)
$0.00
-$1,000,000

4 Payments to be received from SoarLans Settlement
$0.00
+$1,700,000

5 Other Debts (i.e. Konzept)

-$700,000 (approx. – some of this has probably been paid off from the convertible notes)

6 Outstanding Payment to Noetic Synergy for Crypto Exchange

$ Unknown

All up – BPG are (IMO) in a much better financial position, despite the convertible notes with the high interest, at least BPG have a level of liquidity. They probably owe a fair bit to Noetic Synergy – I assume some milestones have been met already and we know they payment structure is upon completion of milestones.

IMO - Item 2 Impact to SP: Slightly Positive (+0.002) On paper, they don’t look too bad at the moment and can confirm/backup any cash-flow concerns.

Item 3 – Crypto Market Cap/Traded Volume

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

1
December ‘17
June ‘18

2 Bitcoin Value (USD)
$13,000
$6,130

3 Crypto Market Cap (USD)
$628,144,000,000
$285,599,000,000

4 Crypto Traded Volume /Day (USD)
$58,805,800,000
$11,539,400,000

5 Traded Volume as a % of
Crypto Market Cap
9.36%
4.04%

(Source = https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/)

View attachment 1163871
IMO - This is the biggest disappointment for me about the breakdown of the SoarLabs contract – not the time it’s taken, but Timing. Back in December you couldn’t avoid hearing about Crypto, in the media, people talking about it over morning coffee, etc. BPG, had timing on their side if they could have released something in say Feb. The volume traded as a % of the crypto market cap is a good indicator as BytePowerX revenue would be based on number of trades and/or (possibly) the value of the trades. Both these have roughly halved since December, but this item assumes the market was factoring this into the BPG Share Price – probably only a little bit at that stage, given BPG did not have an operational exchange at the time of suspension.

IMO - Item 3 Impact to SP: Negative (-0.004) The rate of crypto trading has slowed by a half (proportionate to Crypto Market Cap).

Item 4 – Competition in Australian Market
Not something I’m too knowledgeable about, but there’s more competition in the Market since December last year. However, BPG will have that “First ASX Listed Crypto Exchange” and also the right certifications, be regulated etc.

IMO - Item 4 Impact to SP: Neutral (+/-0.000)

Item 5 – BPPL Ownership

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

1
December ’17 (SoarLabs)
June ’18 (Noetic Synergy)

2 BPPL Ownership
49%
0%

This has to be considered and factored into the BPG Share Price. SoarLabs stood to take a cut from the proceeds made by the Exchange. Noetic (we believe) are getting milestone payments for the project and ongoing service agreement payments as a run-partner (i.e. maintenance of the exchange), but don’t take a cut of what the exchange makes. 100% goes to BPPL > BPG.

IMO - Item 5 Impact to SP: Positive (+0.004)

Item 6 – BPG Sentiment/FOMO/Marketing of BPX (“Hype”)
The ‘Hype’ factor, Jumping on the band-wagon, Fear Of Missing Out, etc – this, mixed with a good marketing campaign and positive public sentiment across social media platforms. This IMO, can have a short term impact to the SP, perhaps a day or three, but won’t sustain a higher SP. This, of course, assumes BPG get their marketing correct. SP being sustained for longer periods will come once BPX is up and generating revenue. No point of talking about long-term targets for the BPG SP, as that will depend on many more factors.

IMO - Item 6 Impact to SP: Positive (+0.002 to +0.003 initially)

Totals

Column 1 Column 2

1 Current Price
0.009

2 Item 1 – Additional 830m Shares in Market Slightly Negative (-0.001)

3 Item 2 – Operational Cash/Cash In Bank Slightly Positive (+0.002)

4 Item 3 – Crypto Market Cap/Traded Volume Negative (-0.004)

5 Item 4 – Competition in Australian Market Neutral (+/-0.000)

6 Item 5 – BPPL Ownership Positive (+0.004)

7 Item 6 – BPG Sentiment/FOMO/Marketing of BPX (“Hype”) Positive (+0.002 to +0.003 initially)

8 Total
1.2c to 1.3c
Upon Open

Longer Term is a bit too hard to predict, but with an operational exchange and if the crypto markets pick up and we’re the only ones fully regulated etc, the exchange could prove to be a cash cow.

All IMO, Only For Exercise, DYOR, I'm bored at work, and all that.
Cheers
MSN

Expand

Good post mate. Very balanced

BPG Price at posting: 0.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

0 Great analysis

Top Stories

MIN

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

History-making uranium sample grades and an imminent drill run. Infini Resources is poised to transform in 2025

ACW

This biotech stock raised $11M in a risk-off environment. Its Alzheimer's drug could change the game

WC8

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

Breaking news: New opportunities for investors & companies - HotCopper opens to capital raising!

There are more pages in this discussion • 2 more messages in this thread...

First 2 Last

Add BPG (ASX) to my watchlist