It's calculated using demand growth only, without consideration of NG production and reserve limits. Everyone would prefer using NG to coal and oil for environmental reasons, but there is simply not enough NG to replace coal and oil. ATM, NG is only a small fraction of total energy and there is not much spare NG production. There will be gas shortage in a few years.
China's LNG import increased by 55% YoY, and I think it's for domestic using only (cooking and heating). They have thousands coal power stations. How many LNG plants are required to replace a third of them?
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