"So Esh, how much do you think RSG would need to sell Ravenswood at to get A$150 million cash?"
Sorry I don't really understand the question.
We don't know very much about the $500 million spitball valuation, whether its pre or post tax, what gold price assumption it uses or what discount rate it uses etc etc.
The $150 million I plucked out of the sky represents about $20 million per year in FCF, total $280 million over 14 years (Ravenswood feasibilty LOM) at a discount rate of 10%.
I don't know if you read my post where I give my rule of thumb for the industry. You can read it below. Based on my rule of thumb, $20 million in FCF equals about 85koz/annum of production. Using my rule of thumb and based on forecast feasibilty LOM production at Ravenswood of 115koz/annum the mine has a value of $375 million but you always have to leave some value on the table for the next guy when owner becomes seller.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/re...598372/page-105?post_id=37078181#.XEEqLho_WhA
Extract from that post quoted below
"I think you can use this roughly calculated example as a bench mark for the actual upper end profitability of this industry. The much larger absolute Tier one gold mines running on bulk scales and low costs might have other profit metrics but for your run of the mill pedestrian gold mines this is the best and most quantifiable long term example/experiment out there.
ie 150koz/annum of high quality long life and very high grade gold in the ground buys at absolute maximum (if the gold is retained as gold and not money so as to weather the effects of inflation) $35 million per year in after tax and after inflation FCF and this is for the most exceptional high grade mines. The rest of the stories these companies tell you is BS. Most companies won't even make close to half this much from that level of production if you average that production over 18 years (decades) as they are constantly spending more and more money replenishing reserves and finding new capex to develop those reserves."
