You still haven't explained where you got your numbers from.
In anycase I've gone back and checked against previously published company projections for UG ore mining rates at Syama.
The company provided a chart on page 9 (figure 6) of its June 2018 quarterly activities report published on the 24th of July 2018 which shows projected UG mine production of ~210kt of ore give or take 5kt for the Dec 2018 quarter. That includes what looks like about 50kt of development ore with remaining ore indicated as stope ore.
I have estimated from figure 8 of the 14 Dec 2018 SLC update announcement that the company mined 180kt plus or minus 10kt for the months of Oct, Nov and Dec. That looks like a potential undercall of around 20 to 30kt of ore based on the earlier June projections. At the reserve grade and factoring in "targeted" recovery, that only represents an undercall of 2,213 ozs of gold. Hardly a shocker in the scheme of this large scale development.
Based on the projections in figure 8 of the recent update they are projecting about 100kt for Jan, about 115kt for Feb and 140kt for March for a total of about 355kt for the March quarter. Their previous projection in figure 6 in the June 2018 quarterly was for about 310kt of production so the present forecast is an overcall on their past forecast for the March quarter of about 45kt.
The mine is roughly on track based on past projections and judging by the projections in the recent SLC updated the ramp up is going to proceed faster than than the June estimates. If you aren't interested in checking my estimates of the potential ore tonnages that can be mined from the completed ore drives in the SLC you are closing your eyes to more information that points to the ramp-up proceeding according to the provided shedule.
I haven't seen where or how you derived the numbers from your so called "model" so I can't comment.......still waiting.
(20min delay)
