As mentioned in my original post the recovery only decreases the amount of gold that might be expected from the published ramp-up rate, as you have shown, so that actually shows up a bigger overcall in production based on the UG tonnage ramp-up figures in the chart provided by the company.
I think my original post if you read it carefully outlines the limitations of my conclusions as the composition of the source of the feed into the sulphide circuit is unknown and you also need to account for the effect of the gold in circuit. But I am not relying on a chart showing projected mining rates going forward. I am using a chart publishing the monthly tonnes mined UG for Oct, Nov and Dec to compare against the actual gold produced.
I think your unsubstantiated claim that production from the sulphide circuit is a "shocker" is unjustifiable based on the known facts. At least I have provided some bench mark numbers to show that the gold production based on actual tonnes mined and shown in that chart are a significant overcall (assuming the reserve grade). We still need to wait for the full quarterly report to see how much of the sulphide production originated from stockpiles and gold in circuit (which is a number you probably will never get from the quarterly). As I said my review of all the data gives me some personal comfort and the production of 74kozs for the quarter shows that the company as a whole isn't resting on its laurels in terms of gold production (even if costs are higher during this transitional period). Compare that with the punters perennial ex-favourite goldie, BDR's, quarterly production of 15,848 ozs and I'd be careful before making such flippant and derogatory calls about our company and our managment.
Emperor has no cloths hey.
Well sell your holding, if you actually have any, and come back in the second half of the year to rub it in.
200t/month at the reserve grade and 85% recovery gives about 44koz per quarter from UG sulphides at Syama.
The oxide circuit just produced 34,653ozs for the quarter.
Combine this and you get 78,653ozs per quarter from Syama alone (forget about Ravenswood's continuing contribution). Give the Mali government their 20% share and that's about 63koz/quarter from Syama operations alone or about 252koz of annual production equivalent.
With 757,512,088 SOI, a MC of $871 million and an EV of $933 million, a 14 year mine life at Syama UG targeting a LOM AISC of US$746 with potential to expand Syama operations to 280kozs/annum (after Mali government share) I don't see what all the fuss and attention is about. There are many ASX gold stories valued way higher than RSG with far less impressive assets than Syama both in terms of grade and longevity.
If you or anyone else think this is a desperate and overvalued story that's heading for a train-wreck, don't buy, sell, or short the stock if you want. There ain't that much value left out their in the ASX gold producer market IMO. I personally think this stock is undervalued based on its long term metrics so I hold and accumulate on the dips plus a little trading on the side. Esh
RSG Price at posting:
$1.15 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
