Bottom here?, page-274

W

Yes I know.

But if you can find charts going back to the 1990s you will see that the COTs were in a similar situation to what they are today in the second half of the 1990s, and the USD POG was not going up.

The problem is that global inflation rates are low (except a few countries such as Turkey) and as a result of Fed raising rates/QT real rates are beginning to turn positive in the US. Since gold does not provide a yield it its price is strongly influenced by rising real interest rates. Gold and goldies will probably do well once the Fed has finished its rate hikes assuming there is still some inflation and no hindrance to demand by Chindia. There is always the worry that a poor harvest can negatively impact Indian gold demand or that their govnut will somehow restrict gold imports in order to conserve FX. Higher oil prices is not good for Chindia, although it is good for oil exporting countries, some of whom are net gold importers.

loki