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24/09/18
14:51
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Originally posted by lilypily
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There hasn’t been a breakthrough in a long time in this area especially for a drug that would be utilised in a community setting. Very confident of a positive outcome and the market cap is priced very well
Upon success it should easily justify a 100mill mc+
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Hi @lilypily My personal view is that FTTs deserves a market cap substantially greater than $100m BEFORE the results are delivered given what we know about the size of the market and the summary statistics released by the company to date. I can justify this by either using relative valuation:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ft...nd-20c.4270887/?post_id=33977805#.W6hsKmgzZyw
Or alternatively with reference to my estimate of peak sales assuming success if somewhere between USD $500m-$900m per year:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/co...better.4278828/?post_id=34068783#.W6hsMWgzZyw
Which means that post results a strategic acquirer like Smith and Nephew could pay up to $1b and still find the deal comfortably accretive:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/if...-price.4288788/?post_id=34160796#.W6hr1mgzZyw
Either way despite the good move over the past week I believe that market is still significantly asleep when it comes to valuing FTT correctly.