The 8c AUROA options mainly lapsed because the then SP was not...

The 8c AUROA options mainly lapsed because the then SP was not supporting it. I can't see anything being different about AUROB at 12c. In fact it looks like none will be exercised UNLESS the SP increases dramatically over the next 2 months to be > 12c and stays solid. The company can't do anything about it either without something really special happening. In that regard, the only thing that could push the SP up like that would be a very good takeover offer, as you state.

You say that the options would be exercised because of such an offer and its positive effect on the SP. But how does that fit in with an actual takeover timing-wise?

I don't see the similarities with WIN. Yes, there was BB and MF involved, but it's a different situation with AUR imo. Was the WIN takeover engineered by BB and MF consorting?

Now, to SFR and AUR getting together. Yes, it's a possibility. I have suggested that beforehand in fact. However, the variable here is how the vote goes. If MF gets up and gets his Board then I would expect SFR to attempt to take out both AUR and HOR simultaneously. In fact, it would not surprise if there was already an unwritten MUO about that, one that was perhaps part of the SFR and AUR negotiations on the farm-out/jv. MF would have had a hand in that I reckon.

However, if the Mandevilla group wins, then no BB, and I'd say no easy deal with SFR. There might be a deal but not such a cosy one for SFR as the last horrible one.

All that aside though, I hope that you are right about the 18 -20c.