I agree with your thoughts assuming the original judgement is overturned.
On the other hand, if the original judgement is upheld and BMG wound up, then I would imagine that both Ample Source and Hillam would both approach CAP directly for a JV under similar terms. My reason for this is like you say, the battle they have both fought has been so hard, long and costly for them that they must each want to continue in the Hawsons JV deal.
If the orginal judgement is upheld, then I don't see it as a question of whether the JV will continue on similar or more favourable terms to CAP, but who the JV partner will be - Hillam, Ample Source or some one else that CAP may have lined up.
CAP Price at posting:
34.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held