What do you think of this analysis:
1. Currently trading below its book value. Assets from latest report = 6887 mil. Shares outstanding 537 mil. So if BlueScope was liquidated, it would return $12.80 per share. Current share price $11.20 which is a 12% discount.
2. Good free cash flow. I'm not very clear on how to calculate this so I'll just say, at the moment it looks healthy.
3. Earnings per share gives good margin of safety. Underlying earnings in 2018 were $1.48 per share. At current price of $11.20, that's a 13% earning power (i.e. PE of 7.5). If you used the previous year's earnings of $1.14 per share, it's still got earning power of 10%, or a pe of 10. Considering that banks and bonds etc are returning less than 3%, that's a good margin of safety. Even if Bluescope's earnings halved next year (against current guidance, which forecasts growth), you are still looking at 5% earning power, which is better than bonds.
What am I missing? Is this one to back up the truck on?
I suppose the reason it is lower is because analysts think its earnings will shrink in the next 3-5 years. But it's not forecast to drop that much.
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