On paper:
- Grant Thorton has recommended the scheme is in the best interest of share holders.
In the real world:
- Grant Thornton's recommendation is based on current official information at the time of their review. Same goes for the courts. Grant Thorton may well suspect a TO is likely, given their experience in the industry, but it is not up to them to consider hypotheticals, even high probability ones. Whether Centerbridge want a TO or not, is not official legal information, is outside the scope of their review, and is not their problem.
- Their report is technically 'independent', but no doubt they would be aware of the recommendation BLY wanted. I've no reason to doubt Grant Thorton but we must be aware of the typical issues regarding compliance, auditing, and the natural bias to provide answers stakeholders want, especially in finance.
BLY is fairly close to insolvency, they are 50% owned by Centerbridge (a PE company), the shares are worth nothing (TO on the cheap, even if there are 26B), they are moving to Canada and not listing on their exchange. There's every reason Centerbridge will snap the shares. They want to make money, opposed to 'exiting' per se. That could mean exiting after a partial recovery, retaining all the equity as a private company, or something in between. Who knows.
But it could be a good buy for you. Buying at 0.4, even a TO at 0.8 means you'll double your money. There's always the insolvency risk however.
BLY Price at posting:
0.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held