So, if we have a crack at valuing BKL using this long term...

So, if we have a crack at valuing BKL using this long term growth rate excluding the boom year we get a value of about 10% pa.

Forecast EPS in FY17 is $3.55 consensus. Long term conservative growth rate we will use is 10%. A fair a conservaitve number.

3.55*(7.5+1.5*10)*4.4/4 = $87.86 value.

So, seems like the market has it right based on the long term growth and the upside would be in the company growing at a much faster rate over the next 5 years.

At 15% growth rate $117.15 value - which is not far off the previous price levels.

At 20% growth rate $146.43 value - this would represent a really successful roll out in Asia one would think.

I think it is safe to say that over $200 was a bubble.