I like that your number is realistic, and your logic is visible. The comments I will make are... If we hit oil there is a high chance we will sell down our stake to NZO in return for free carry. So 17.5% is the number I worked off. I also think you can be slightly more optimistic with your profit per barrel number.
There is also p10/50/90... But let's see if we get the hit before discussing variations on recovery.
Good luck to those holding over the next few months
OXX Price at posting:
22.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held