Personally, as many might know by now I'm looking at the 4 Dec constitutional referendum in Italy as the biggest factor for setting the direction in gold this year and through next year and beyond.
If Renzi goes there is a better than 50% chance in my opinion that Europe will unwind in the next two years and the Euro might cease to exist. What would this mean for bonds, gold, currencies, markets?
The average Italian has no idea how important they are to the stability of the whole system and the local political issues there will determine their future and that of Europe, not esoteric arguments about economics and the stability of banks. The reforms want to concentrate the political power further to the elite and would bolster the power of the European Parliament and ECB. It's not a direct vote like Brexit but if the vote goes against Renzi the outcome is likely to be the same, although it will take a more contorted path. Interesting to watch.
The biggest shake up to America will occur if Hillary wins and the house and senate fall to the democrats as well. The republicans and markets would be shaken to the core.
Trump is only one wild card in this election, there are other market shaking outcomes (however unlikely they might be). Esh
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