More Money..think about replacement of existing assets or...

More Money..think about replacement of existing assets or alternatively the cost of building retirement assets to cope with the demand...which is some 150,000 ILU's over the next 5 years or so.
Then even if you can build an existing asset base like Aveo for less than its cost or value...you then have to wait whilst the villages mature before you draw down your cash (and profits) via the DMF model.
Your comments about Mulpha gaining "advantage" from Aveo is very correct. Norwest and Sanctuary Cove are two such examples.
Under your scenario of a bid being 20% to 30% premium to SP would place the directors in an embarrasing situation. If they wanted to close the gap between SP and NTA when the price was at $2.35...that surely means a supported price well north of that.
These guys can put in low ball bids till the cows come home, but it must be accepted by the directors. We will never know what the low ball bids are because they (the directors) won't disclose.
They might well steer the negotiations towards a scrip offer to a cornerstone shareholder at say $2.80 with existing shareholders entitled to participate at some kind of discount. This will get cash in the door to reduce the debt and allow for an orderly sale of the stock overhang. Plenty of options.