1. Buying into energy explorers means you're prepared to role the dice. I retained BOW based on the reserves targets of 1,250 2P and 6,200 3P deferred to 2012.
I'll take that 14 cents for 3P in 2012 thanks.
Further, I'm hopeful the market will be far better placed in June 2012 than it is now. I'm prepared to role the dice on that one too.
Shell Petrochina launched the bid now for two reasons. Firstly, the global ecomony and market is in a woeful state and CSG is on the nose. Secondly because a significant increase in BOW's reserves could have resulted in a significant re-rating of BOW's share price in a potentially improved share market in 2012.
2. As to metrics and profitability of BOW's turf, quite frankly, we don't know BOW's potential yet (in 2011) but in 2012 we would know a lot more. I was prepared to role the dice.
BOW's board should have rejected the offer. Thanks Shell but come back next year.
I think the unexplored prospectivity of BOW's tenements far outweighs your oft repeated doubts based on a relatively small amount of flow data.
You don't have sufficient data to make a definitive call yet, nor does BOW at this stage.
Let's role the dice.
3. The potential dilution between now and achieving 2012's 2P target was nil as BOW's management stated they had sufficient funds.
I was prepared to role the dice that the increased value of reserves would far outweigh any potential dilution of only one capital raising possible around June 2012.
I'm disappointed as I thought BOW's board had more ticker.
BOW's up for auction as this is a low price and Shell would have been crazy to up the offer more than $1.52 in the off chance there is another buyer. I don't expect one but I'm hopeful.
Good luck and SF I'd bet you're the only "very happy" shareholder.
BOW Price at posting:
$1.48 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held