big question marks ??????????, page-123

Actually, if you go back and read their 2017 results preso you will see that single item performance have too large a leverage on profitability. While I still believe this is a good company, their 2017 growth didn't match the hype produced by the 2016 growth. API hid this by talking about underlying numbers. Codeine in NZ and Hep C in Oz are a case in point. These sort of issues will happen every year; its the nature of the business.

In addition, fragrances and vitamins are underperforming - and guess what? These are two of the easiest chemist product lines to buy on line.

While there is little doubt that some of the one-off impairments are just that, others are less believable. Reversing a DD cost may seem OK, but its a pretty much constant in doing this type of business - they want to keep expanding, so its hardy a one off?

The SP has been hammered by people who can see through their results. On my reckoning, the business is worth about $1.40/sh and will patiently wait for it to get there before I buy back in. If it doesn't, well, I'll look for a wider moat elsewhere.

I've been wrong before - but I don't cry over missed opportunities, only losses!