big potential , page-11

Hi dibbz

I believe 55c is highly unlikely in the next couple of weeks and certainly 45c will never happen even if you take into account "the sub 20c market price". If you want an opposing view read all my prior posts as I've been bullish for a long time. There are so many reasons why VBA will head higher and these include:

Virgins domestic operations, excluding V Australia and Pacific Blue, is worth 65c to 70c just by itself. Add in V Australia and Pacific Blue and you hit my $1 target that I've been talking about for ages. I also think this price target is conservative because I believe V Australia will break even before the market expects. On top of this I believe there'll be better long haul yields - I posted a table earlier that showed yields started improving in December 09. And just remeber that international load factors are at historical highs.

The 200 hasn't been going sideways - its up 432pts since 9th Feb. The US market is up in % terms even more. Unless the RBA has got it wrong, the domestic economy (gdp)is heading much higher, unemployment is heading lower, business investment is taking off and we'll be hitting capacity utilisation issues sooner rather than latter etc. That sounds pretty positive to me. Remember this a cyclical stock and linked to the economy. This is reflected in the numbers coming through from Macq Airports who are reporting large % increases in people travelling by air.

The AUD has such a big impact on VBA's earnings and the little battler is holding itself against the USD. Risk is back on the table and the EU seems like they'll cover for any soverign issues, RBA told us yesterday that 50bps and we'll be back to normal rates, so higher we go and expect more than 50bps. My feeling is that the US won't be moving rates until next year and what they'll do is change the language in their statement to the market. Commodity prices are going higher as ABARE has already tolds us - coal prices are up over 50% and Iron ore prices (not spot) will rise by over 60% in 2010. This is all pretty supportive for the AUD and therefore VBA.

I could go on forever but I hope I've answered your questions. By the way not a bad day for VBA. Remember, we're still to hear from the government.