I hope it's b). I've never backed one long enough or with enough conviction to see a multi bagger and pat myself on the back. THe issue is psychologically it's a much harder battle, for yourself I'd be happy with a mid 2's entry and conviction that it's worth staying the course, but being much higher to the 4c range - pretty much bought what you sold - it's much harder. At the time it wasn't a bad ask, but it wasn't great. At this current price it's a great price with enough safety to me than buying an adequately valued stock out there that your banking on growth. Whereas here arguably it's worth more.
The issue, and the reason why I am hesitant (apart from having no spare money currently) to top up is option a). The big issue with the last half year, was it wasn't the lack of a strong balance sheet that caught me out, but th elack of ability to predict the operating cashflow side. I did expect a bad half year but didn't exepect such a dramatic drop in revenue translating to a miniscule profit.
My biggest worry is management's style is light on details on revenue. We know what's out there but sometimes we don't know what the actual timing, costs and other guidance is compared to some other larger, bigger outfits. The plus side is we might geta positive surprise, but the negative is it could be a bad full year ahead. More the risk of having a 'cheaper' entry price, although if they deliver on both the luxury townhouses and the housing collaboration one would imagine they would, in the next 2 years earn enough to claw back. So more of a 'is now the lowest time to buy' pov? There's also the issue of will they eventually deliver on an acquisition (unlikely IMHO as they haven't had luck already) , get an overseas tendering outfit going successfully, or will the mining flattening/stabilisation lead to the odd small tender, or will a 'blow you out of the water' tender come through (doubt this). If the last were to happen we would be laughing all the way to the bank.
Might be worth strapping on to wait for the full year... don't think buyers are coming to the party, and there will be capitulation i am sure if this continued towards 1c. Big psychological barrier to take a 50% paycut and hope to buy in even lower, so I may just hold on. Just don't want to be that 'average down' investor, aka : got it wrong initially, lowering cost price to feel better. haha.
Good lesson anyway - and I had a feeling at the time I was rushing in to a good story, that could be cheaper. Lucky it isn't much in the grand scheme of things, but a decent chunk from my 'available cash' currently. Should get better once life turns and more cash comes in.
RDG Price at posting:
1.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
