618,
I would have to fully agree with your sentiments. What the TO offer from ROC is doing is totally put pressure on AZA's sp.
The market thinks that the deals is done and stiched up, while it is not, and fully to the contrary.
As you said, ROC is trying to buy AZA for practically nothing, hence why the recommendation from one of the Independent Directors, that we should not sell at the offer price.
I would have to disagrre with your comments about KPMG's Independent Expert report though, because KPMG states that "The AZA takeover offer is not fair, and it goes on explaining as to why they arrive to that conclusion. Please read the Target Statement report which was sent to all the Shareholders lately.
They also states that ROC is wanting to get AZA because, while AZA is debt free, ROC is geared at 31.2%, which is fairly high. With the amalgamation being successful, ROC would reduce their debt gearing dramatically and acquire quite good assets debt free, currently producing, and risk free.
The Independent Expert also states that the offer is not fair because they assumed the current vaue of AZA, based on the 2P reserves alone, way above the offer that ROC is making.(That is, without any considerations attributed to the 3P reserves which are worth more money).
Also if you read the report is states that 4 of the Directors who agreed to the sale, and recommend us to accept the offer, are also Directors of AEL, who already accepted the offer itself.
In my opinion the Independent Expert report and the recommendation of one of the Independent Directors, who recommended for us not to accept the offer, is clear enough for me, not to accept, and hopefully that it will not reach the required 90% for the compulsory acquisition.
There is also mention in there that should ROC would increase the current offer, then the advise may change to the motion. Most importantly, there is also mentions in there that other parties have expressed interest for a counter bid. Wheher or not this would happen and come to anything I don't know, but it is in there for us to read.
Mentions have also been made in the Target's Statement that, should the TO offer fail, AZA's sp may rise because of it's structure and debt free situation with more extensive drilling to come on soon, and possibly increase resources and production.
As such, I will continue to hold, until there are some changes or until the last of the Director that recommend for us not to accept, will say that it is OK for us to do so.
Please DYOR.
Buddy
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